Let me tell you something Walter White knew from the very first episode of Breaking Bad: when someone shows up with easy money, the right question is never "how much do I get?" — it's "who gets screwed in the end?"
Trump's back in the ring with another proposal that gets the masses on their feet cheering: exempt Social Security benefits from income tax for roughly 54 million retirees. Sounds beautiful, right? Grandma and Grandpa with more cash in their pockets, less government eating away at the retirement they busted their asses for.
But hold on. Breathe. Think.
The Populist Magician's Trick
Every populist tax proposal works like a magic trick: you stare at the shiny hand while the other one picks your pocket.
Today, taxes on American Social Security benefits generate somewhere between $45 billion and $90 billion per year in federal revenue. That money doesn't fall from the sky — it funds the very trust that pays out those retirements. It's a snake eating its own tail, I know. But ripping out that revenue without replacing it with anything is hitting the gas pedal toward the system's collapse.
The Social Security Trust Fund itself is already projected to become insolvent around 2033–2035. This isn't some conspiracy theory from a crackpot on YouTube. It's the U.S. government's own official projection.
So tell me: you slash the revenue of a system that's already dying... and you call that what? Generosity? I call it gasoline on the fire.
"But Retirees Deserve to Pay Less in Taxes!"
They do. I agree. The worker who ground it out their whole life deserves every penny of their retirement without having to split it with a bloated, incompetent government.
But here's the point no political guru is going to tell you: how you do it matters more than what you do.
If you want to cut the tax burden on retirees, you need to cut spending somewhere else. You need to reform the system. You need the guts to touch the military budget, corporate subsidies, the federal bureaucracy that devours trillions a year.
But that doesn't fit in a tweet. It doesn't get applause. It doesn't make headlines in the Washington Post.
You know what makes headlines? "Trump wants to give more money to 54 million retirees." Done. Election bought with a promise.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating — And That Taleb Could Explain in 30 Seconds
Nassim Taleb has a concept I repeat here until I'm blue in the face: skin in the game. The people proposing the measure won't suffer its consequences. Trump is a billionaire. The congressmen who'll vote on it have bulletproof private retirement plans. The campaign consultants will collect their bonuses regardless of the outcome.
Who's going to foot the bill? The 35-year-old worker contributing today who'll find out in 20 years that the fund dried up.
It's the same movie. Always the same movie. The politician hands out the gift today and shoves the bill onto the next generation. It's like that guy who pays for the barbecue on a credit card in 12 monthly installments and thinks he's being generous — generous with other people's money.
What This Means If You Invest
If you have any exposure to the American market — and most of us do, even if indirectly — pay attention to this:
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Expansionary fiscal promises with no spending cuts = more public debt. And more American public debt moves the dollar, moves Treasuries, moves everything.
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The U.S. deficit has already blown past $36 trillion. Every proposal like this is more fuel on that bonfire.
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The market might even rally in the short term on the populist euphoria. But in the long run, the bill comes due. It always comes due.
Warren Buffett didn't sell off half of Berkshire's stock position by accident. The Oracle of Omaha smells the storm before the wind shifts.
The Question That Remains
So before you share the pretty headline in the family group chat with clapping emojis, answer me one thing:
If a guy offers you a beautiful gift wrapped in gold paper, but the price tag has your kid's name and your grandkid's name on it — is that a gift or is it a scam?
Damn, think about it.
