There's a scene in The Wolf of Wall Street where DiCaprio's character is literally wasted, the world crumbling around him, and he just keeps dialing to sell stocks. Wednesday on the American market was exactly that — just without the cocaine (at least officially).
The Circus Recap
The U.S. sank Iranian ships. Read that again: ships at the bottom of the ocean. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East escalated to a level that, in any logical universe, should have sent the market into a tailspin. At the same time, jobs data came in better than expected — which would normally be great news, but in this batshit-crazy 2026 environment could also mean "the Fed's gonna take longer to cut rates." And to fill in the last square on the apocalypse bingo card, there was an update on the never-ending tariff soap opera.
The result? Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all closed green.
Damn, this market is either resilient — or completely detached from reality. Maybe both.
The Jobs Data Game
Employment numbers came in above consensus. In theory, strong economy, more people working, consumer spending heating up. The pretty narrative that the suits on CNBC love to parrot.
But between us — people who actually have skin in the game — strong jobs numbers in March 2026 are a double-edged sword. The Fed released the Beige Book the same day showing mixed economic activity. Translating from Economese: "some parts of the economy are doing fine and others are bleeding out."
When jobs come in strong but activity is mixed, what does that actually mean? That Jerome Powell is going to keep sitting on the fence, not cutting rates, with that look of a professor who can't decide whether to pass or fail the student.
And the market? Ignored it. Bought everything.
Iranian Ships and the Price of Oil
This is where things get genuinely interesting. The U.S. sank Iranian ships — a serious military escalation — and oil... dipped slightly. Yeah, it went down.
The next day the picture shifted and oil pushed past $80 a barrel, but on Wednesday the market pulled that classic move of "I'll process this headline tomorrow, today I'm busy buying Nvidia."
Speaking of Nvidia: NVDA was up. Tesla too. The market darlings keep performing like wars, tariffs, and monetary policy are irrelevant details on a PowerPoint slide.
Palantir, which is basically the company that profits the most from conflict and surveillance scenarios, surged. Who would've guessed that a defense and AI company would rally when the U.S. gets into a military conflict. A surprise to absolutely no one paying attention.
The Tariff Elephant in the Room
The tariff saga continues. Trump jacking up tariffs, the market trying to price the unpriceable. A retail chain cratered because of tariff risk — because when you import 90% of what you sell from China and the government decides to slap duties on everything, your business model turns to dust.
This is what Taleb would call fragility. Companies built on the assumption that global trade will work the same way forever are ticking time bombs on legs. One stroke of a pen changes everything.
Meanwhile, the folks at BofA revalued Tesla based on future robotaxi earnings. Future earnings. From robotaxis. In 2026. Cybercabs were spotted at the factory — wow, how concrete. It's like valuing a pizza shop by the smell of dough that hasn't even gone in the oven yet.
What Actually Matters
The market is operating in a mode I call "selective optimistic ignorance." It cherry-picks what it wants to see: good jobs numbers? Buy. War? Ignore. Tariffs crushing retail? Their problem, I've got Nvidia.
This kind of behavior works — until it doesn't. As old Buffett used to say: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
The Fed's Beige Book saying "mixed activity" should be a flashing yellow light. Not red, but yellow. The kind of signal that most drivers in a hurry blow right through.
The question you should be asking yourself isn't "why did the market go up today?" — that one's easy, always is. The right question is: if the U.S. is sinking ships, tariffs are breaking retail companies, and economic activity is "mixed"... what exactly is holding up this euphoria?
If your answer is "Nvidia and vibes," maybe it's time to reassess the size of your position.
