You know what fascinates me about this circus we call the financial markets?

A company delivers 8.5% revenue growth, crushes every earnings estimate, comps growing 5% versus expectations of 3.7%, and the stock... does nothing. Zero. Zilch. Just sitting there like a pigeon on a park bench.

Welcome to the TJX Companies saga — parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods — which dropped its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday and, once again, ran circles around Wall Street analysts. But the market, like that kid who only reads the back cover the night before the exam, got hung up on the conservative guidance and ignored everything else.

The Numbers Speak for Themselves

Let's get to what matters, no fluff:

  • Revenue: $17.7 billion for the quarter (vs. $17.4B expected). Beat.
  • Earnings per share (EPS): $1.58 (vs. $1.23 expected). Obliterated. Even stripping out a one-time $0.15 per share litigation benefit, that's $1.43 — still 16% above consensus.
  • Comp store sales: +5% (vs. +3.7% expected).
  • Annual sales: topped $60 billion for the first time in company history.
  • Pre-tax profit: grew 26.5% year over year.

All four operating segments — Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International — beat expectations. For the fourth consecutive quarter. This wasn't a fluke. This wasn't luck. It's a pattern.

HomeGoods accelerated from 5% to 6% in comps. The international operation went from 3% to 4%. Marmaxx and Canada decelerated slightly (from 6% to 5% and from 8% to 7%, respectively), but damn — decelerating from 8% to 7% is the kind of "problem" every CEO wishes they had.

"But What About the Guidance..."

And here's where the comedy kicks in.

Guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 came in like this: sales between $13.8 and $13.9 billion (below the $14.93B expected), comps of 2% to 3% (below 3.8%), EPS of $0.97 to $0.99 (below $1.02).

For the full year: sales of $62.7 to $63.3 billion, EPS of $4.93 to $5.02 — all below consensus.

And you know what's hilarious? TJX does this every single time. It's the modus operandi. It's their game. Under-promise, over-deliver. It's as predictable as the Joker causing chaos in Gotham.

If you're an investor and you're still falling for TJX's conservative guidance trap, the problem isn't the company — it's you.

The Antifragile Model

This is where things get truly interesting — and where Taleb would crack a smile.

TJX's business model is buying excess inventory from premium brands and selling it at a discount. In a world of persistent inflation, squeezed consumers, and tariff uncertainty, that's pure gold. While traditional retailers import directly and get hammered with full tariff exposure, TJX buys what's left over in the system — and the more chaotic the environment gets, the more quality merchandise shows up on the cheap.

CFO John Klinger himself admitted on the call that current-quarter results were tracking even stronger before the winter storms hit North America — and that they've already bounced back since.

And there's more: the availability of quality merchandise remains "exceptional," in the company's own words. Translation from corporate-speak: good brands have too much product sitting around, and TJX is right there scooping it all up at a discount.

The Play

Jim Cramer's Investing Club reiterated a rating of 1 (the highest score) and raised the price target from $160 to $180. The logic? Healthy gross margin expansion, SG&A expenses below expectations, and a business model that actually gets stronger precisely when the macro environment gets worse for everyone else.

While the market obsesses over guidance that everyone knows is deliberately conservative, the adults in the room are paying attention to what actually matters: flawless execution, cash generation, and a competitive positioning that Ross Stores and Burlington are still trying to copy.

The question is simple: are you going to keep reacting to guidance from a company that systematically delivers above its promises, or are you going to learn to read the game for what it really is?

Because in this market, anyone who only looks at what a company says and ignores what it actually does is doomed to buy high what they could have bought low.