There's a classic scene in Breaking Bad where Walter White, surrounded by ash and rubble, is still trying to convince everyone he's got the situation under control.

I think about that scene every time I read a press release from an electric car company bleeding billions and calling the results "aligned with our growth trajectory."

Lucid Group did exactly that last Tuesday.

The Number That Doesn't Lie

Loss per share of $3.62. The market expected $2.62. In other words, Lucid didn't miss the target — it blew right past it in an eighteen-wheeler.

Revenue? Now there's a bright spot: $523 million against the $468 million expected. A 12% beat on the top line. Someone in the marketing department popped a bottle.

But hold on. You can outsell your forecast and still sink deeper into the red. That's exactly what happened here. Revenue above expectations, losses way above expectations. There's a name for that: a company that still hasn't figured out how to make money from what it sells.

For all of 2025, Lucid posted a net loss of $2.7 billion. Nearly identical to 2024's loss. Revenue grew 68%, production nearly doubled — and they didn't move the needle one cent on a hole that's just as deep as before.

The Interim CEO and the Art of Calling a Slowdown "Conservatism"

Marc Winterhoff — interim CEO, let's start right there — told the market that the production target for 2026 is between 25,000 and 27,000 units. That would be 40% to 51% growth over 2025 numbers.

"Healthy, but not aggressive."

What a fine choice of words. In 2025 they nearly doubled production. In 2026, they're planning to grow at less than half that rate. And they're presenting this proudly, as if tapping the brakes was some sophisticated strategic decision rather than a flat-out surrender to reality.

Oh, and about 2025 production? Those 18,378 vehicles they announced? Revised down to 17,840. Five hundred and thirty-eight cars that "did not complete certain internal validation procedures." Sounds like something out of a third-grade audit.

The Saudi Elephant in the Room

There's one detail that suit-wearing analysts love to gloss over whenever they talk about Lucid: the company survives because Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund (PIF) keeps injecting cash.

Without that external oxygen, Lucid would already be gone. This is a luxury electric car company that isn't profitable, operates in a slowing market, laid off 12% of its American workforce less than a week ago, and ended 2025 with $4.6 billion in liquidity.

That cash is the only thing standing between Lucid and becoming an MBA case study on what not to do.

The CFO called the cash position "strong." Technically, he's not wrong. At $2.7 billion in annual losses, you've got about two years before you need another injection — or you start turning off the lights.

Winterhoff said he has no plans for further cuts. Good to know. But interim CEOs say a lot of things.

What's Coming (According to Them)

  • A cheaper midsize vehicle set to begin production in late 2026 — but it won't move this year's numbers.
  • The Gravity SUV is expected to be the company's most produced and best-selling vehicle in 2026.
  • Lucid plans to launch its first robotaxis with already-announced partners.
  • An investor day on March 12 in New York, where they'll presumably try to look more confident than their results have any right to justify.

Robotaxis, by the way. In 2026. From a company that still has no idea when it'll turn a profit. It's exactly the kind of narrative that makes investment bank analysts' eyes light up as they fire up the prettiest PowerPoint deck of their week.

Nassim Taleb has a line I keep with me: "If you want to predict someone's behavior, look at what they risk, not what they say."

Lucid's interim CEO is talking about healthy growth and efficiency. The balance sheet is talking about billions burned with no profitable horizon in sight.

One of the two is lying.

You decide which.