I'm going to tell you a story that reads like an Adam McKay screenplay — the guy who directed The Big Short.
Imagine a company that produces nothing. Has no meaningful operating revenue. No profit. Doesn't even have definitive regulatory approval to start operations. And then a bunch of people show up on the internet asking: "If I buy this stock today, will the future dividends let me retire?"
Jesus. That's the financial equivalent of buying a plot of land on Mars and already planning where to put the grill.
What Is The Metals Company (TMC)?
For those unfamiliar, TMC is a company that wants to do deep-sea mining — specifically, collect polymetallic nodules from the Pacific seabed, rich in nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper. Essential metals for EV batteries and the energy transition.
The thesis is seductive, I won't lie. The world needs these metals. Land-based mining is destructive, expensive, and politically messy. And down at the bottom of the ocean, there are trillions of dollars in minerals waiting for someone with the tech and the guts to go get them.
The problem? Almost everything about this thesis is still a promise.
The company operates under exploratory licenses from the ISA (International Seabed Authority), the UN body that regulates mining in international waters. And the ISA still hasn't finalized the mining code that would actually allow commercial exploitation. Without that regulatory framework, TMC is basically a company with a really pretty PowerPoint.
The Dividend Fantasy
Now here's the part that makes me want to flip the table.
The narrative floating around forums and "investing" channels goes something like this: "If TMC gets the licenses, starts mining, and generates cash, it could pay massive dividends in the future. So buying today at rock-bottom prices would be like buying Saudi Aramco shares before oil became black gold."
Notice how many "ifs" are in that sentence?
If they get the license. If the technology works at scale. If extraction costs are viable. If there's no environmental blockade. If metal prices stay high. If the company doesn't dilute shareholders until the stock turns to dust.
That's not investing. That's a lottery ticket with a coat of fundamental analysis paint.
Benjamin Graham — the father of value investing, the man who taught Warren Buffett — had a quote that should be tattooed on the forehead of every speculator disguised as an investor: "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."
TMC doesn't promise safety of anything. Not even your principal.
The Numbers Nobody Wants to See
The company burns cash like it's firewood at a Fourth of July bonfire. No significant revenue. It depends on constant capital raises from the market — which means dilution for existing shareholders. Every time they issue new shares to fund themselves, your slice of the pie gets smaller.
And dividends? Companies pay dividends with profits. With free cash flow. TMC has neither. Talking about TMC dividends today is like debating the penthouse décor of a building that doesn't even have a foundation yet.
I'm Not Saying the Thesis Is Garbage
Easy. Before some TMC fan comes at my throat: deep-sea mining could be a transformative industry. The metals are strategic. The company could be a pioneer.
But "could" doesn't pay the bills. Nassim Taleb would say this is a textbook case of narrative asymmetry: the story is so good that people stop doing the math. And when you stop doing the math in financial markets, the market does it for you — and it usually charges a hefty price.
If you want to speculate with money you can afford to lose — real money you're okay watching go to zero — fine. Put 1-2% of your portfolio in it and treat it for what it is: a high-risk asymmetric bet.
But if you're buying TMC thinking you've found the golden goose of future dividends, answer me this:
Since when is betting on the ocean floor safer than keeping your feet on solid ground?
