There's a scene in Parasite, by Bong Joon-ho, that never left my head: the rich family and the poor family live in the same city, breathe the same air, but inhabit different planets. The rain that's a minor inconvenience for one is an existential flood for the other.
Well then. The quarterly results from two giants of the American gym industry — Life Time (LTH) and Planet Fitness (PLNT) — just delivered the fitness version of that metaphor. And it's brutal.
Same headline, two completely different movies
On the surface, both reported double-digit revenue growth, membership increases, and unit expansion in 2025. Beautiful. Champagne for everyone, right?
Wrong as hell.
Under the hood, the story forks like that "expectations vs. reality" meme. And the technical name for this fork is K-shaped economy — where the upper arm (the wealthy) keeps climbing merrily along, while the lower arm (middle and working class) starts to shake.
Life Time: where the big money sweats in peace
Life Time operates those massive clubs with pools, spas, gourmet cafés, and personal trainers who charge more per hour than a lot of people make in a day. It's the playground of the affluent. And the affluent, my friend, are spending like there's no tomorrow.
In the fourth quarter, revenue jumped 12.3% year over year, hitting $745 million. Average revenue per member reached $882 — up nearly 11%. The company raised dues by $10 to $30 per head, and you know what happened?
Nothing. Nobody canceled. Nobody complained. Demand kept climbing.
CEO Bahram Akradi described the model as a "super-engaged membership, not a non-usage model." Translation from corporate-speak: people don't pay to not show up. They pay and they go — and then they blow even more cash on personal training, spa treatments, and $18 artisanal açaí bowls.
Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner nailed it: downside risks are limited because the customer base is high-income. That recession the newspapers sell every day? For this crowd, it's news you read on your iPad while waiting for your massage.
Planet Fitness: it grew, but the guidance sent chills down your spine
On the other side of the K, Planet Fitness — the $10-a-month gym, the temple of fitness democratization — also grew. It added 1.1 million new members in 2025. Double-digit revenue. Looks great in the rearview mirror.
But the market doesn't live on rearview mirrors. It lives on guidance. And Planet Fitness's guidance for fiscal 2026 came in below what Wall Street expected: 9% revenue growth and same-store sales of 4% to 5%. Weak.
CFO Jay Stasz tried to soften the blow: "storms in January," "cold weather in several markets," "churn rate slightly above expected but already normalizing." The classic "it was a one-off, not structural."
Was it, though?
Planet Fitness is testing price increases in some markets, with a rollout planned for summer 2026. It's also investing in new amenities. In other words: trying to squeeze more revenue per member from an audience that is, by definition, price-sensitive.
That's like asking a tightrope to hold more weight. It might work. It might snap.
What the K is really telling us
Look, the K-shaped economy isn't news. Since the pandemic, anyone with assets (stocks, real estate, businesses) rode the liquidity wave. Anyone living paycheck to paycheck got hammered by inflation, interest rates, and the cost of living.
What's new is that even within the same sector — gyms, something seemingly simple — the divergence is splashed all over the balance sheets.
Life Time grows because its customer is rich. Planet Fitness grows despite its customer being squeezed. These are completely different vectors, and only one of them is sustainable under macroeconomic stress.
If the American economy does in fact slow down in 2026 — and there are signs of it — Life Time will function as a luxury bunker. Planet Fitness will be the canary in the coal mine of everyday consumer spending.
And you, investor, need to decide: are you betting on the spa or the $10 treadmill?
Because in a K-shaped world, there is no middle ground. It's either up or down. And the elevator already left.
