You know that scene in The Joker where he says "nobody panics when things go according to plan"? Yeah. The global auto industry's plan didn't include a war between the US-Israel and Iran. And now everybody's panicking.
According to analysis from Bernstein — one of the few research houses still worth reading — Toyota, Hyundai and Chinese automakers like Chery are the ones that'll bleed the most from this conflict. This isn't guesswork. These are numbers.
The damage map
These three automakers account for roughly a third of sales in the Middle East. Toyota leads with 17% of the regional market, Hyundai follows with 10%, and Chery with 5%. In Iran specifically, the domestic players Iran Khodro and SAIPA run the show, but Chery holds a 6% share — and that's going straight down the drain now.
And here's the detail a lot of people are ignoring: the Middle East has become a crucial destination for Chinese auto exports. Data cited by Bernstein shows the region accounted for about 17% of China's passenger vehicle exports in 2025.
Damn, nearly one-fifth. That's not marginal exposure. That's an artery.
The Strait of Hormuz: the world's jugular
But the direct impact on regional sales is just the surface. The real monster under the bed is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If you don't know what that is: picture a narrow corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Some 20 million barrels of oil pass through it every day, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. It's also a critical shipping lane for vehicles and parts headed to the Middle East.
If it closes? The world shakes.
Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee put it in practical terms: "The closure of the Strait of Hormuz adds 10 to 14 days to transit times." A prolonged conflict would mean damaged sales, exploding logistics costs and cascading delivery delays.
Know what this reminds me of? The supply chain chaos of 2021-2022. Except now with missiles flying.
Oil at $90 and US gas prices: the bill has arrived
On Friday, WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel. Gas prices in the US jumped nearly 27 cents in a single week, reaching a national average of $3.25 per gallon, according to AAA.
Julian Emanuel, a strategist quoted by CNBC, warned: gas near $4 a gallon becomes an economic tipping point. In plain English: the American consumer starts cutting spending — and a new car is the first thing scratched off the shopping list.
Stellantis: disastrous timing with the stench of Greek tragedy
Now, the cherry on top of the rotten cake.
Bernstein said that among European automakers, Stellantis (parent of Chrysler, Jeep and Fiat) appears to have the "greatest exposure, considering its overall issues." The company's stock has already dropped 11% since the previous Friday.
And why? Because the geniuses at Stellantis decided to make an aggressive pivot back to gas-guzzling HEMI V8 engines while ditching their electrification efforts.
Analyst Lee was surgical: "Making such a sharp turn toward gas-guzzling engines and discarding electrification seems particularly ill-timed right now."
Ill-timed is an understatement. It's like opening an umbrella shop in the desert — and then acid rain suddenly starts falling somewhere else.
The official responses (or lack thereof)
Toyota said it "does not conduct business in Iran and has no employees residing there," but is "closely monitoring the situation." Stellantis dropped that classic corporate statement that says absolutely nothing: "it's not possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations."
Hyundai and Chery? Dead silence.
When companies go quiet, pay attention. In the market, silence is never golden — it's fear.
What this actually means
The impact on Japanese automakers "appears limited for now," according to Bernstein. But that caveat — "for now" — is the most important phrase in the entire report.
Wars don't follow schedules. Supply chains are fragile. And the oil market is the domino that, once it falls, takes everything else down with it.
If you have exposure to these automakers — or to the global auto sector — the time to revisit your thesis is now. Not after the next missile. Not after the next headline. Now.
Nassim Taleb would say: the black swan has already landed. The question is whether you're positioned to survive or if you're just going to watch the wreckage from the window.
