There's a scene in Joker where the guy says: "The worst part of having a mental illness is people expect you to behave as if you don't." Yeah. The global financial market is at this very moment pretending everything's normal while the president of the United States just killed Iran's supreme leader — and in three weeks is supposed to sit down for tea in Beijing with Xi Jinping.

Good luck with that schedule.

The cold, hard facts

Trump announced over the weekend that joint U.S.-Israel strikes took out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This two weeks after he'd already snatched Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their own residence in Venezuela. Two foreign leaders neutralized in two months.

Now the guy wants to fly to Beijing on March 31 — the first visit by a sitting American president since 2017 — to negotiate trade with China. The same China that has rock-solid diplomatic ties with Iran and Venezuela.

If this were a House of Cards episode, you'd say the writers jumped the shark.

Beijing is not happy (and they're not hiding it)

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Khamenei's death, calling the strike a "grave violation of Iran's sovereignty and security." They demanded an immediate ceasefire. But — important detail — they were less direct in blaming the U.S. than they had been in the Maduro case.

Analysts read this as a "tone that was uncommonly softer," in the words of Jack Lee from China Macro Group. In other words: Beijing is pissed, but still calculating whether it's worth flipping the trade negotiation table over Tehran.

George Chen from The Asia Group summed up the diplomatic schizophrenia perfectly: "How can Xi feel normal and ready to welcome Trump in a good mood?"

Short answer: he can't. But money talks louder than pride — and both sides know it.

What the betting markets are saying

And here's where it matters for anyone with skin in the game.

Polymarket showed a brutal drop in expectations that Trump visits China by March 31: from 83.9% on February 21 to 42% on Monday. However, bets on a visit by April 30 remain at 81%. In other words, the market doesn't think the trip dies — it thinks it gets pushed back.

On Kalshi, the probability of Trump going to China by 2027 dipped slightly but holds at 91%.

Translation for the non-finance crowd: the smart money is pricing in delay, not cancellation. The trade truce struck in October is too valuable for either side to torch. But the timing went to hell.

The problem for American CEOs

This is where it gets even more interesting. Several American business delegations were planning to hop on the plane with Trump to close deals in the world's second-largest economy. Classic playbook — leaders from other countries had already done this throughout 2026.

But according to a source in the American business community in China who spoke to CNBC: "Even before the Iran strike, a lot of American CEOs didn't want to go to China with Trump. Now the situation has gotten even more complicated."

I mean, imagine that board meeting: "Boss, we're going to close that $500 million deal, but the guy introducing us just assassinated the supreme leader of our host's allied nation. Should we bring wine or flowers?"

The elephant in the room: Taiwan

Jack Lee notes that the real litmus test will be whether Washington signals restraint on arms sales to Taiwan. The self-governing island remains the shortest fuse in the U.S.-China relationship. If Trump wants to show good faith to Beijing after turning the Middle East upside down, Taiwan is the obvious bargaining chip.

And Trump told the Daily Mail that strikes on Iran could last four weeks — which would collide head-on with the March 31 date.

Chinese state media made a point of highlighting that detail Monday morning. Coincidence? In the geopolitical chess game, nothing is a coincidence.

So what does this mean for you?

If you have exposure to emerging markets, energy commodities, or anything that depends on stability in the U.S.-China relationship, the next week is one to stay wide awake. The trade truce isn't dead, but it's in the ICU of geopolitical risk.

The question nobody in the market wants to ask out loud: if Trump treats allies and enemies with the same unpredictability, how much is any deal he signs in Beijing actually worth?