You know that scene in The Matrix where Neo dodges bullets in slow motion and everyone thinks he's the chosen one?
Yeah. That's exactly what the American market did today. Dodged everything — tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, stubborn inflation — and delivered a broad rally that left a lot of LinkedIn analysts scratching their heads.
But hold on. Before you go posting fire emojis on Twitter, pay attention: the real test is tomorrow.
What happened today
This Monday, February 24th, all three major U.S. indexes rose in lockstep. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones — everything green, looking pretty, all smiles.
The rally was broad-based. It wasn't dragged up by one or two stocks. It was the kind of rally that makes beginner investors think the market is easy, that you just buy and wait.
Spoiler: it's not.
What actually happened is that investors are positioning themselves ahead of two events that could flip the table entirely:
- Nvidia earnings tomorrow (Tuesday)
- Trump's State of the Union address
In other words, the market didn't rise on new fundamentals. It rose on expectations. And expectations, my friend, are the mother of all disappointments.
Nvidia is the main event — again
Nvidia has basically become an index of its own. This company's weight on the markets is so insane that when it sneezes, the Nasdaq catches pneumonia.
Every quarter it's the same soap opera: analysts project stratospheric numbers, the company beats them (because those numbers were already whispered behind the scenes), and then the market reacts like it's the first time.
But here's the point nobody wants to discuss: what if Nvidia disappoints?
It doesn't have to be a disaster. All it takes is slightly conservative guidance, margins a hair below expectations, a comment about slowing demand for AI chips — and that's it. The house of cards shakes.
Remember what Buffett always says? "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
Yeah. Tomorrow the tide might go out.
Trump and the State of the Union: more circus or real punches?
The other catalyst is Trump's speech to Congress. And this is where things get interesting.
The market tries to price Trump in like he's a predictable asset. Hell, the guy is the exact opposite. He's Gotham's Joker — you never know if he's going to shake your hand or pull the rug out from under you.
The central issue revolves around tariffs. The market is praying — literally — that Trump doesn't escalate the trade war with China, Europe, and whoever else crosses his path.
If he uses the speech to signal more aggressive tariffs, today's rally turns to dust. If he strikes a conciliatory tone (unlikely, but who knows), the market could stretch higher.
The problem is betting on which version of Trump shows up. That's not investing. That's Russian roulette.
What this means for you
If you have a position in American tech — especially the Magnificent Seven — tomorrow is a day to actually pay attention. Not to what the Instagram gurus are going to post, but to the real numbers and the guidance.
If you don't have a position and you're thinking about jumping in before the results: be careful. Buying before earnings is like walking into a casino thinking you know what card is coming next. Sometimes it works out. Most of the time, the house wins.
The smartest strategy? Have a plan before the event. Know where your stop is. Know how much you're willing to lose. Have real skin in the game, not just in your tweets.
As Taleb would say: don't tell me what you think, tell me what's in your portfolio.
The question that lingers
Was today's rally the market pricing in real optimism, or was it just the last gasp before a correction that everyone feels in their bones but nobody has the guts to say out loud?
Tomorrow we find out who was bluffing.
