Look, I was going to write about macroeconomics today. About interest rates, the fiscal circus, something that actually impacts the life of the average person trying not to get swallowed alive by inflation.
But then Tim Cook — that guy who looks like a Silicon Valley megachurch pastor, always smiling with the zen calm of someone sitting on top of $3.4 trillion in market cap — goes and confirms that Apple will have an entire week of new product announcements.
And the market loses its mind.
The Annual Luxury Consumerism Ritual
Here's how it works: Apple announces that it's going to announce. The tech media goes berserk. Wall Street "analysts" adjust their projection models like they're deciphering the Dead Sea Scrolls. And retail — that individual investor who buys AAPL because "it's Apple, bro, come on" — rides the euphoria like someone joining a Black Friday line at 4 AM.
It's the financial equivalent of that Matrix scene where Morpheus asks: "Do you want the blue pill or the red pill?"
The blue pill: believing that every new iPhone, every new M-whatever chip, every generative AI feature will be the catalyst that sends the stock to new all-time highs.
The red pill: understanding that Apple is, fundamentally, a mature hardware company desperately trying to reinvent itself as a services and AI company before China eats its lunch.
What Actually Matters (And Nobody Talks About)
The actual content of the news? There was almost nothing. Literally. You'd click the link and land on a Google cookies page. That alone is already a perfect metaphor for the state of financial journalism in 2025: all hype, zero substance.
Tim Cook confirmed a "week of product revelations." Cool. So what?
Let's get to the facts that actually matter:
1. Apple needs a narrative. iPhone revenue in China is falling. Huawei came back swinging. European regulation is tightening the noose around the App Store. The company needs new product cycles to justify the 30x earnings multiple the market happily pays.
2. AI is the new 5G. Remember when 5G was going to change everything? Yeah. Now it's "Apple Intelligence" that's going to change everything. Spoiler: it probably won't. But it'll make for a pretty keynote, generate headlines, and move the stock 2-3% on announcement day.
3. The Tim Cook effect on the market is real but fading. The days when an Apple announcement could move the entire S&P 500 are slipping away. The concentration in the "Magnificent 7" is already showing signs of fatigue. Anyone who's all-in on tech needs to start asking whether they're confusing genius with cycle inertia.
The Skin in the Game
Warren Buffett — that old man whose Berkshire significantly trimmed its Apple position over the last few quarters — didn't do it because he went senile. He did it because he understands something the average Twitter investor doesn't: price matters.
You can love the product. You can think the ecosystem is brilliant. You can sleep spooning your MacBook Pro. None of that changes the fact that overpaying for any asset — no matter how extraordinary — is a recipe for mediocre returns.
Nassim Taleb would say the crowd that goes hysterical over every Apple announcement has "zero skin in the game" in their analysis. It's cheerleading, not investing.
So, What Should You Do?
If you've got Apple in your portfolio, take a breath. A week of announcements doesn't change an investment thesis. If it changes yours, your thesis was garbage from the start.
If you're thinking about buying because of the hype — dude, stop. Go back to basics. Look at the valuation. Look at the cash flow. Look at the competition. Look at what Buffett is doing, not what some Instagram influencer is posting.
Apple is an extraordinary company. But an extraordinary company at an extraordinary price becomes an ordinary investment.
Tim Cook will get up on stage, smile, say "incredible" about fifteen times, and the market will clap.
The question is: are you clapping as an investor or as a fan?
Because fans pay for tickets. Investors collect dividends.
