"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."

Oppenheimer said that, quoting the Bhagavad Gita, after watching the first atomic bomb explode. I don't know what was going through Trump's mind when he announced that Ayatollah Khamenei was likely eliminated in Saturday's massive strikes against Iran. But I bet it wasn't anything nearly that poetic.

Reality is rougher than that.

What Happened (No Sugarcoating)

Saturday. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against targets in Iran. This wasn't some dinky little "surgical strike" for the cameras. Trump called it Operation "Epic Fury" — because modesty was never the man's strong suit.

The American president went in front of the cameras and said Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was probably dead. Multiple independent reports corroborated the claim. Trump then delivered a message straight to the Iranian people: overthrow your government.

Read that again: the President of the United States asked, on national television, for the people of a sovereign nation to start a revolution.

This isn't a movie. This isn't Call of Duty. This is the real world in February 2026.

The Geopolitical Chessboard Just Flipped the Table

For those of you who follow financial markets and think geopolitics is "newspaper stuff" — wake the hell up.

Iran is not Libya. It's not Iraq circa 2003. It's the fourth-largest OPEC producer, sitting on the Strait of Hormuz — through which more than 20% of the world's oil flows. If Iran decides to choke that bottleneck in retaliation, the price per barrel goes to the stratosphere. If markets price in a prolonged war, the entire picture changes.

Think the way Nassim Taleb would: this is a Black Swan in real time. Not because nobody imagined a conflict with Iran — that's been on the radar for decades — but because the scale and speed caught everyone with their pants down on a Saturday.

The market was closed. The bomb literally dropped over the weekend.

So now what? How does the Dow Jones open on Monday?

Dow Jones Futures: Panic, Opportunity, or Trap?

Let's be honest: nobody knows.

Anyone who says they do is either lying or selling a course.

But we can reason from history:

  • Gulf War (1991): The market dropped hard at the beginning of the Kuwait invasion, but surged once the actual US military operation kicked off. The S&P 500 rose over 30% that year.
  • Iraq Invasion (2003): Decline in the months leading up, rapid recovery after the bombing started.
  • Soleimani Strike (2020): A 48-hour scare, then the market simply shrugged it off.

The historical pattern suggests: the market hates uncertainty, but loves resolution — even when that resolution is violent.

If the market believes the US and Israel have the operation under control, that there won't be nuclear escalation, and that Iran can't retaliate in any meaningful way against global energy supply, the initial dip could be a savage buying window.

But — and this "but" is as big as the Strait of Hormuz — if there's retaliation against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, if the conflict escalates into a regional war involving Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iranian proxies, then buddy, hold onto your hat. Oil above $120, the dollar skyrocketing, and the Brazilian stock market getting wrecked as collateral damage.

Where Does This Leave Brazil?

Petrobras wakes up Monday as an involuntary protagonist. Surging oil prices benefit the state-owned giant in the short term, but a global energy crisis sends inflation through the roof — and then the Central Bank tightens, consumer spending drops, and the party ends fast.

The dollar should open under pressure. Gold is going to fly. Bitcoin? Probably too — people run to "off-the-grid" assets when the grid looks like it's on fire.

What Should You Do?

First: don't panic. Panic is the most expensive emotion in financial markets.

Second: keep cash on hand. If you've followed any basic principle of risk management, you've got dry powder to act. If you don't, this is the lesson the market is giving you for free — this time.

Third: watch before you move. Monday is going to be chaotic. But the week also brings Berkshire earnings and the Apple event. The market doesn't stop because of war. It never has.

Warren Buffett said it best: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

The question left on the table is brutal and simple:

Do you have the stomach — and the cash — to be greedy when the world looks like it's on fire? Or are you going to sell everything at the bottom and cry about it later, like always?

War tests portfolios. But before that, it tests character.