Remember that Monty Python scene where the Black Knight loses both arms and both legs and yells "it's just a scratch"?
Yeah. Lucid just dropped its Q4 2025 earnings report, and that's exactly what it feels like.
The Numbers Nobody Wants to See
Loss per share: $3.62. Wall Street expected $2.62. That's not a rounding error. That's missing the target by almost 40%. It's like aiming for the goal and hitting the nosebleeds.
Revenue actually came in above expectations — $523 million versus the $468 million forecast. Looks nice on paper. But when you burn through $814 million in losses in a single quarter — more than double the same period last year — revenue is like slapping a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound.
For the full year, the net loss was $2.7 billion. That's right, with a "b." For context, annual revenue was $1.35 billion. In other words, for every dollar that came in, two went up in smoke. Hell of a business model, right?
The Layoffs That "Won't Continue"
Days before the earnings report, Lucid laid off 12% of its salaried U.S. workforce. Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff — yes, interim, because this company can't even land a permanent CEO — told CNBC the cuts were a "necessary realignment" and that they "won't continue going forward."
Anybody got their corporate bingo card handy? "Streamline operations," "greater efficiency," "deliver on our commitments to gross margin improvement." The full starter pack of phrases every company trots out when things are circling the drain and HR needs a polished press release.
The 2026 Target: Optimism or Delusion?
Lucid is projecting production of 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles in 2026. That would represent a 40% to 51% increase over the revised 2025 numbers.
Ah, yes. Revised. Because they discovered that 538 vehicles hadn't completed "internal validation procedures" to be classified as produced. So 2025 production dropped from 18,378 to 17,840 units. Damn, if you don't even know how many cars you built, how the hell am I supposed to trust your future projections?
And here's a detail Winterhoff himself admitted: "Our initial plans were higher, but we wanted to be conservative." Translation from corporate-speak: reality slapped them in the face and they adjusted downward before embarrassing themselves.
Compared to 2025 — when they nearly doubled production — growing 40% to 50% is actually decelerating. Winterhoff calls that "healthy." I'd call it "the bare minimum to stay alive."
The Gravity SUV Carries the Weight on Its Back
The plan is for the Gravity, the brand's SUV, to account for the bulk of production and sales in 2026. The Air sedan takes a back seat. A mid-size, more affordable vehicle starts production late in the year but shouldn't move the needle on 2026 numbers.
And there's more: robotaxis. Lucid wants to launch its first robotaxis with already-announced partners. Because when your company is hemorrhaging billions, the most logical move is obviously to wade into one of the most complex, heavily regulated, and capital-intensive areas of the auto industry. Makes total sense.
Liquidity — The Only Presentable Number
$4.6 billion in total liquidity. CFO Taoufiq Boussaid called it "strong." And it is, in fact, a fat cushion. But when you're burning through nearly $3 billion a year, that liquidity is a countdown clock, not a shield.
Nobody at the company was willing to say when they expect to be profitable. They've scheduled an investor day on March 12 in New York. Let's see if they've got the guts to answer that question while looking investors in the eye.
The Question That Lingers
Lucid has good technology. They've got a beautiful car. They've got Saudi sovereign wealth fund money bankrolling the party. But good technology without execution is just a PowerPoint deck.
The EV market is slowing down. The competition — Tesla, BYD, Rivian, and even legacy automakers — is getting fiercer by the day. And Lucid is burning through cash like it's firewood at a Fourth of July bonfire.
The real question isn't whether Lucid can produce 27,000 cars. It's whether anyone will buy them fast enough before the money runs out.
Would you bet your chips on a company with no permanent CEO, no profitability on the horizon, and a track record of not even being able to count how many cars it built?
