There's a line old Rupert Murdoch (Lachlan's dad) dropped back in the '90s that sums it all up: "Sports is the only DVR-proof content." Updated for today: it's the only content that's skip-proof, ad-blocker-proof, algorithm-proof. You don't watch the Super Bowl replay on Monday morning. Either you're there, live, or you're irrelevant at the office water cooler.
And the NFL knows this better than anyone.
The deal on the table
The NFL is sitting across from Paramount Skydance — which owns CBS — to renegotiate broadcast rights for Sunday afternoon games. The current price tag? Around $2.1 billion a year. What the league wants? A roughly 50% increase. Do the math: we're talking somewhere around $3 billion per season.
Three. Billion. Dollars. Per year. For one package of games.
In exchange, the NFL would eliminate the opt-out clause from the original contract — the one that let the league bail after the 2029-30 season. In other words: CBS would pay more, but would be guaranteed to keep the most valuable content on American television through 2033-34. Eight years of locked-in contract.
The carrot and the stick. A classic move.
Why is CBS first in line?
This is where it gets interesting. The NFL chose to negotiate with Paramount/CBS before all other partners (Fox, NBC/Comcast, Amazon, Disney/ESPN) for a very specific reason: Skydance Media's acquisition of Paramount triggered a change of control clause that allows the NFL to terminate the deal as early as 2027.
See the play? The NFL has a knife to Paramount's throat and is using it. "Want to keep your Sunday games? Pay up. Now."
David Ellison, Paramount's CEO, played diplomat in his CNBC interview: "We have a phenomenal relationship with the NFL and intend for it to continue." Translation from corporate-speak: "We'll pay whatever they ask because we have no choice."
And he's right. Paramount's projected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is $3.6 billion. If the merger with Warner Bros. Discovery gets the green light from regulators, that number jumps to $18 billion. At that scale, an extra billion for the most-watched content on American TV becomes the cost of doing business.
The domino effect
After CBS, the NFL plans to go after Fox, which pays around $2.2 billion for the other Sunday package. Lachlan Murdoch already let slip at the Morgan Stanley conference that he plans to "continue the mutually beneficial relationship" — which in Murdoch-ese means "I'm ready to write the check, but I'm damn sure gonna try to haggle."
And here's the part nobody's talking about: executives at NBC and Disney are pissed. According to CNBC sources, they believe their packages — Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football — have lost relative value because the NFL gave better matchups to Amazon for Thursday Night Football. ESPN already pays $2.7 billion for Monday Night. A 50% bump would push that north of $4 billion.
Damn. Four billion for one night of football a week.
What this means for investors
If you've got shares of Paramount (PSKY), Disney, Comcast, or Fox in your portfolio, pay attention. These contracts are the strategic asset for these companies. The NFL isn't a partner — it's the one who owns the relationship. Always has been.
The league collects revenue with zero operational risk, zero investment in production, zero concern about declining viewership. The networks carry all the risk. And when contracts expire, the NFL simply raises the price. It's the closest thing to a toll booth that exists in the entertainment business.
Warren Buffett would love this business. In fact, maybe that's why he's bought media stocks over the years — the guy understands moats like nobody else.
The question left hanging is simple: if the NFL can extract 50% more in an environment of economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and fragmented audiences... who exactly has bargaining power at this table?
And more importantly: if you were a Paramount shareholder, would you sleep easy knowing your CEO called a relationship "phenomenal" where the other side charges you an extra billion and you say thank you?
