There's a scene in The Platform — that bizarre Spanish movie on Netflix — where food descends through the floors and, even with abundance at the top, the people at the bottom starve. The platform is generous, but the distribution system is garbage.
Well, here we are. The United States is the world's largest oil producer. Pumping out over 13 million barrels a day. More than Saudi Arabia. More than Russia. And yet, the average American complains about gas prices at the pump like they live in a country that imports every last drop.
A paradox? Nope. It's the market working exactly how it works — and not how the feel-good narrative from LinkedIn gurus wants to sell it to you.
The Illusion of Self-Sufficiency
Producing oil doesn't mean controlling the price. That's lesson number one that nobody wants to learn.
Oil is a global commodity. The price is set on international markets — Brent, WTI — and it's shaped by wars, OPEC+ decisions, financial speculation, strategic reserves, weather, geopolitical tensions, and even a poorly timed tweet from some world leader.
The US produces a lot, but it also consumes a lot. It's the planet's biggest consumer. And most of the oil it produces goes onto the global market. American oil companies aren't patriotic charities — they're corporations that sell at the best available price, which is usually the international price.
If a barrel is worth more exported to Europe or Asia, guess what happens? It goes to Europe or Asia. Capitalism 101. Nobody should be surprised.
The Elephant in the Room: Refining
Here's where the detail that 90% of Twitter "analysts" ignore comes in.
Producing crude oil is one thing. Turning that oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is a completely different ballgame. And the US has a chronic refining capacity problem.
After hurricanes, scheduled maintenance, and refinery closures in recent years (some never reopened post-COVID), the bottleneck isn't underground. It's at the refineries. It's like having a massive orange farm with only three juicers running.
The result? Even with abundant crude, the finished product — the gasoline that goes into the tank of some American's F-150 — stays expensive because the refined supply can't keep up.
And What Does This Have to Do With You, the Brazilian Investor?
Everything, damn it. Everything.
First, because oil prices directly affect Petrobras, which is probably one of the most debated positions on the B3. If you've got PETR4 in your portfolio — and a whole lot of people do — you need to understand that the global oil pricing dynamic is more complex than "produce a lot = prices drop."
Second, because the same logic applies to Brazil. We're a major oil producer, we export pre-salt crude like it's going out of style, and we still pay through the nose for fuel. The mechanism is structurally the same: global commodity, limited refining, pricing policy tied to the international market.
Third — and maybe most importantly — because this story is a brutal reminder that simple narratives are dangerous for your wallet. "Biggest producer = cheap gas" is the kind of shallow thinking that makes people lose money every single day.
The Taleb Lesson Here
Nassim Taleb would say that confusing production with control is a category error. It's like thinking that because you grow wheat, the price of bread at the bakery depends only on you. It doesn't. It depends on the entire chain — logistics, processing, distribution, demand, regulation.
The energy market is a complex system. And complex systems have the nasty habit of humiliating anyone who tries to oversimplify them.
So next time someone tells you oil is going to drop because "they're producing too much" — or that Petrobras is going to rally because "crude is up" — ask that person: do they have skin in the game, or are they just parroting headlines?
Because headlines don't pay the bills. And the market doesn't forgive those who mistake the map for the territory.
