You know that scene in The Godfather where Michael Corleone hugs his brother right before having him whacked? Yeah. That's exactly what Trump did with China in the longest State of the Union in American history.

He talked about everything. Except the 18-trillion-dollar elephant in the room.

On Tuesday, the President of the United States stepped up to the House podium and unloaded a speech covering inflation, tariffs, stock market records, Venezuela, military supremacy — and mentioned China exactly once. And get this: it was only to say that "Russian and Chinese" military technology was protecting Maduro in Venezuela.

One single mention. In a record-length speech.

For anyone who remembers the three State of the Union addresses from his first term (2017-2021), when Trump hammered "China" like he was driving nails into a wall — citing the Beijing threat in every single one — the silence now is deafening.

The Game Behind the Silence

Gabriel Wildau of Teneo put it bluntly: "Trump doesn't want to pick a fight with China in an election year." With November midterms on the horizon, stability in the U.S.-China relationship became priority number one.

And here's the point the market needs to pay attention to: Trump is heading to Beijing from March 31 to April 2. It'll be the first visit by an American president to China since 2017.

Damn, think about the timing. You're not gonna trash-talk a guy on Monday if you need to have dinner at his place on Wednesday.

But it's not all roses in this diplomatic dance. George Chen of The Asia Group threw cold water on things: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs still hasn't confirmed the exact dates of the visit. "This makes Trump look more desperate to visit China than Xi Jinping is to receive him," Chen said.

Read that again. Let it sink in.

The guy who sells himself as the greatest dealmaker on the planet is, in practice, standing at the door like an Avon salesman while Xi decides whether to open up or not.

The Context That Matters: Tariffs, Rare Earths, and Legal Chaos

You can't understand this silence without remembering what's happened in recent months:

  • Last spring, the U.S. and China escalated tariffs to over 100% on each other's goods. An insanity that only makes sense in game theory when nobody's playing rationally.
  • In October, they reached a trade truce with tariffs below 50% for one year. Better? Sure. But "below 50%" is still a gut punch to global trade.
  • Beijing tightened export restrictions on rare earths — those critical minerals nobody thinks about until they need them. China dominates this global supply chain. Without rare earths, good luck manufacturing chips, batteries, and military equipment.

And to spice things up even more: last week, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs Trump had imposed the previous year. The president scrambled to Plan B with an alternative legal basis, but tariff uncertainty shot right back up.

Wildau was surgical: "The State of the Union showed that Trump thinks glorifying military triumphs against weak states like Venezuela gets more votes than fighting China over rare earths."

Translation from econ-speak: military spectacle wins elections; trade wars hit voters in the wallet.

The Democratic Response Went Straight for the Jugular

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, who delivered the Democratic rebuttal, didn't waste any time: "He continues ceding economic power and technological strength to Russia, bowing to China, bowing to a Russian dictator, and making war plans with Iran."

Whether you agree with the opposition or not, the contrast is screaming. Biden, for all his problems, mentioned China consistently — which at least gave markets predictability. With Trump, as Yue Su of the EIU put it well, China policy is unpredictable by design.

What the Market Should Be Watching

Trump's silence isn't weakness. It's calculation. If he closes a deal in Beijing in early April, he comes back as a dealmaker hero before the midterms. If he doesn't, the tariff circus starts all over again — and buddy, buckle up for the volatility.

Chinese state media, on Weibo, chose to highlight the domestic opposition to Trump's speech. Local attention to the SOTU was "lukewarm," according to reports.

That's also calculation. On both sides.

So here's the question: if the greatest showman in American politics decides not to talk about the planet's biggest economic rival on the biggest political stage of the year — what exactly is he negotiating behind the scenes that we don't know about yet?

Anyone with skin in the game knows: silence, in poker and in geopolitics, costs more than any bluff.